While Still Strong, U.S. Home Price Appreciation Rate Slows, Radian Home Price Index Reveals.
WAYNE, Pa – In February, home prices across the United States rose at a slower pace than the month prior (January 2022) but continued to appreciate at higher rates than the year-earlier (February 2021). According to Radian Home Price Index (HPI) data released today by Red Bell Real Estate, LLC, a Radian Group Inc. company (NYSE: RDN), home prices nationally rose from the end of January 2022 to the end of February 2022 at an annualized rate of +11.3 percent. The company believes the Radian HPI is the most comprehensive and timely measure of U.S. housing market prices and conditions.
February 2021 marked the last month that national home prices appreciated by less than 10 percent. Since then, the U.S. housing market has witnessed a prolific string of twelve consecutive months of annualized monthly home price appreciation of more than 10 percent. As a result, the median home price of all homes in the U.S. has risen by more than $41,000 in just twelve months. However, after peaking in September 2021, home price appreciation rates have slowed in each of the subsequent five months.
The Radian HPI rose 15.2 percent year-over-year (February 2021 to February 2022). In comparison, the year-over-year period from February 2020 through February 2021 recorded an 8.3 percent increase. The Radian HPI is calculated based on the estimated values of more than 70 million unique addresses each month, covering all single-family property types and geographies.
“After peaking last September, home price appreciation rates have slowed during the fall and winter months. The remainder of 2022 will likely pit opposing forces—the desired return to normalcy and spending that will come with the ending of the pandemic, and the increased cost of homeownership that has resulted from higher mortgage rates, inflation, and prior home price gains. While the future is unknown, millions of Americans saw their home value increase during a time of great personal and economic stress,” noted Steve Gaenzler, SVP of Products, Data, and Analytics. “The median-priced homeowner in the U.S. gained approximately $62,000 in wealth since the onset of the pandemic closures in March of 2020. Ultimately, housing markets large and small across the country have proven that homeownership is a wealth creator that supports the “American Dream,” even in challenging times,” added Gaenzler.
NATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS
- Median home price in the U.S. rose to $313,530
- Home prices rose an annualized 13.9 percent over the last three months
Nationally, the median estimated price for single-family and condominium homes rose to $313,530. Across the U.S., home prices nationally rose 16.1 percent over the last six months, a strong increase over the prior six-month appreciation rate of just 13.2 percent.
Even during the winter months, when family-centric housing transactions are typically slow, demand remained historically strong, and supply remained at all-time lows. Currently, the U.S. has more licensed real estate agents and brokers, than active listings of homes for sale. Moreover, the largest segment of the U.S. population, millennials, are now in the traditional home-buying age. Strength in other forms of housing, such as single-family rental homes, also continues to grow, adding competitive pressure on home prices in certain markets.
REGIONAL DATA AND TRENDS
- February reported slower appreciation in all Regions
- Northeast and Midwest softened while South and Southwest stayed firm
Like the national reporting, all U.S. regions reported slower price appreciation in residential markets in February 2022. The South and Southwest were particularly resilient as populations grew in these areas from out-of-state transplants and strong demand from corporate sponsors of single-family rentals. In what is normally down months for housing activity, the Northeast and Midwest, unsurprisingly slowed the most. The Northeast (6.3 percent) recorded the weakest monthly, annualized appreciation rate, followed by the Midwest (7.8 percent) and Mid-Atlantic (8.9 percent).
At the state level, home price appreciation slowed compared to the prior month in 46 of the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Only FL, HI, LA, MD, and RI saw increases in appreciation rates. When compared to February of 2021, 39 states recorded higher one-month appreciation rates versus 12 states that were slower than the year prior.
The momentum of home price appreciation differs by state. The brakes appear to have been pressed firmly in one state in particular. Idaho, a state that witnessed very strong appreciation in 2020-2021 due to significant construction of higher-priced homes and increasing prices of sales of existing homes, recorded just a 3.9 percent annualized rate of appreciation in February, the weakest month in years for the state.
METROPOLITAN AREA DATA AND TRENDS
- Largest metropolitan areas outperformed smaller or rural areas in February
- Miami continues to outshine local markets
Of the 20-largest metro areas of the U.S., all of them reported positive price appreciation in February compared to January 2022. Three metros, Seattle, Tampa Bay, and San Diego, recorded the fastest price appreciation, with Boston, Chicago, and New York city producing the weakest appreciation. South Florida has witnessed an uptick in in-migration, attracting many from outside the region. As a result, the Miami metro area reported a record high monthly appreciation rate in February 2022—higher than any time before, during, or after the pandemic.
In just the first two months of 2022, the average median estimated home price of homes in the 20-largest metros was higher by almost $6,400. That is almost 30 percent higher than the estimated increase of $5,000 in the first two months of 2021.